More from Fed’s Barkin: I’m nervous about the tails on both sides of the mandate

• Take encouragement from recent job growth, but not hard to imagine possible job losses due to AI
• Nervous about the tails on both sides of the mandate
• Employers outside of software are not yet reducing headcount due to AI
• Longer-term bond-market-based inflation expectations do not look like it has broken out
• Not leaning towards overly focusing on risks to inflation or employment
• Do not feel like today is a time for strong forward guidance
• Hard to reach conclusions on short- vs long-term effects of AI
• Bond yields are still in a reasonable zone

He’s not adding anything substantial to his earlier comments here. He’s just a passive observer at the moment, waiting for more economic data and for further developments on the US-Iran front.

The Fed will likely need the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz before the June meeting to avoid sounding too hawkish. Interest rates expectations have been driven mainly by US-Iran headlines and that’s unlikely to change anytime soon.

In fact, we saw a slightly dovish repricing following the reports of US and Iran reaching a draft agreement with the mediation of Pakistan to reopen the Strait. That has triggered a rally in stocks, a selloff in oil and weakness in the US dollar and Treasury yields.