EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, we don’t have much on the agenda other than a couple of low-tier releases like the Swiss economic sentiment index and UK CBI distributive trades. The data won’t change anything for the respective central banks, so the market reaction will be muted.
The market is currently focused on US-Iran developments, as expectations for a deal grew stronger yesterday following several positive reports. This is what is likely to be driving the price action ahead of the Jackson Hole event.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we have the US PCE price index and the second estimate of the US Q2 GDP. There’s always some anticipation for the PCE data, but it’s rarely a notable market-mover. That’s because the data is known well in advance, as it can be accurately calculated from the US CPI and PPI data. Anyway, the Core PCE Y/Y is expected at 3.3% vs 3.3% prior, while the M/M measure is seen at 0.2% vs 0.1% prior.
The market is currently pricing in 60% chance of no change in interest rates at the September FOMC meeting. The pricing will be influenced by potential US-Iran deal, Jackson Hole event and the next CPI report.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 10:10 GMT/06:10 ET – ECB’s Cipollone (neutral – voter)
- 15:45 GMT/11:45 ET – Fed’s Barkin (neutral – non voter)
- 16:15 GMT/12:15 ET – SNB’s Martin (neutral – voter)
SOURCE LINK : What are the main events for today?
