Euro and Pound Retreat from Highs After Strong US Data

The euro and pound have pulled back from their recent highs as the US dollar regained ground following a batch of stronger-than-expected economic data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated to 3.7% year-on-year, compared with expectations of 3.6%, while the quarterly core PCE reading came in at 3.6%, above the forecast of 3.4%.

The dollar also received support from stronger consumer activity. Personal spending increased by 0.2%, versus expectations of 0.1%, while personal income rose by 0.4%, double the forecast of 0.2%. At the same time, revised US GDP growth for the second quarter came in at 1.5%, matching market expectations.

Taken together, the figures point to continued resilience in the US economy and reduce the likelihood of the Federal Reserve shifting rapidly towards a more accommodative monetary-policy stance.

Market attention is now turning to fresh US data and the Jackson Hole symposium. Initial jobless claims are expected to come in at 208,000, up slightly from 206,000 a week earlier, while the trade deficit is forecast to narrow modestly to $100.8 billion from $101.4 billion previously.

Following the latest strong US figures, investors will also be paying close attention to comments from Fed officials on inflation and the outlook for interest rates. Resilient economic data combined with hawkish signals from Jackson Hole could provide further support for the dollar, while signs of a cooling labour market or a more cautious Fed tone could put renewed pressure on the US currency.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD has made several unsuccessful attempts to establish itself above 1.1700, resulting in the formation of a doji pattern. From a technical perspective, this could signal a corrective decline towards the 1.1620–1.1580 area.

The bearish scenario would be invalidated by a firm move and close above 1.1700.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• today at 09:00 (GMT+3): Germany’s GfK Consumer Confidence;
• today at 13:00 (GMT+3): total number of unemployed people in France;
• today at 15:00 (GMT+3): Jackson Hole Symposium.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is showing signs of a potential reversal, with a “tower” pattern taking shape. If the formation is confirmed, the pair could decline towards 1.3530–1.3560.

A sustained break below this zone could trigger a deeper correction towards 1.3440–1.3480. Conversely, renewed dollar weakness could allow GBP/USD to recover above 1.3600.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US initial jobless claims;
• today at 23:30 (GMT+3): US Federal Reserve balance sheet;
• tomorrow at 16:45 (GMT+3): Chicago PMI.

EUR/USD and GBP/USD have retreated from their recent highs after stronger US economic data allowed the dollar to recover some of its recent losses.

Whether the current correction develops further will depend on incoming economic data from the US and euro area, as well as signals from Federal Reserve officials. Resilient economic figures and a hawkish tone from Jackson Hole could support a further dollar recovery, while signs of a weakening labour market or more cautious Fed commentary could once again put pressure on the US currency.

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