EUR/USD at risk of another selloff as ECB unlikely to endorse market pricing

FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been consolidating against most major currencies since
Monday. The US CPI report yesterday came mostly in line with expectations and
helped alleviate some of the most hawkish fears. The market pricing hasn’t
changed though as traders continue to price in 24 bps of tightening by
year-end, down very slightly from 25 bps seen before the CPI release.

As mentioned previously, we can now expect the Fed to drop the easing bias
at the upcoming meeting, but the focus will be mostly on the dot plot and
forward guidance. Even though a rate hike is now fully priced in, if the Fed
endorses the market pricing, it will effectively confirm that the bias has now
shifted to tightening and might trigger another rally in the greenback.

The question for markets is now when and how many rate hikes the Fed might
deliver by year-end. The US-Iran standoff doesn’t look like it’s going to
resolve anytime soon, so that’s going to keep energy prices elevated and force
the Fed to act.

EUR:

On the EUR side, the ECB is
widely expected to hike interest rates by 25 bps today bringing the deposit
rate to 2.25%, and maintain the data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.
The central bank will also release new economic projections where inflation is
expected to be upgraded for 2026 but remain unchanged for 2027 and 2028.

The rate hike will be
framed as an “insurance” action to lean against the risk of
second-round effects and maintain credibility, especially in light of upward
revision to inflation projections. The ECB will stress that the current context
is very different from 2022 and the central bank is well-positioned to navigate
the geopolitical and inflation shocks.

The focus today won’t be on
the rate hike as that’s already priced in, but on ECB’s reaction function and
signal/hints about the next policy moves. The market is pricing in 70 bps of
tightening by year-end, which means traders basically expect two more rate
hikes to follow. As previously mentioned, this makes it harder for the euro to
rally on interest rate expectations alone as the ECB is unlikely to “outhawk”
the market pricing.

Although the ECB will
likely keep the door open for more action if necessary, I feel like the overall
tone might sound more dovish compared to market expectations and that could
weigh on the euro.

EURUSD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can
see that EURUSD extended the drop into the
1.15 handle recently following the hot US NFP. The natural target for the sellers
should be the March low around the 1.14 mark. If we get a bigger pullback, we
can expect the sellers to step in around the 1.1650 resistance and the downward
trendline to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will need
a break above the trendline to open the door for a rally into the 1.18 handle
next.

EURUSD TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we have
another downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe. If
we get a pullback from current levels, we can expect the sellers to lean on the
trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The
buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break to extend the pullback into
the resistance.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS –
1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor support zone around the 1.1525 level. The
buyers will likely continue to step in around the support with a defined risk
below it to keep targeting the trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will
look for a break to increase the bearish bets into new lows.

The red lines define the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Today, we have the ECB
rate decision, and the US Jobless Claims and US PPI data. Tomorrow, we conclude
the week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.