The EUR/USD pair traded near 1.1430 on Tuesday. The US dollar is refreshing its highs from March 2026, supported by expectations of further monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve, as well as cautious optimism surrounding negotiations between the US and Iran.
An additional factor for the markets was Washington’s decision to grant Tehran a temporary 60-day licence to export oil to global markets. This move strengthened expectations of a gradual recovery in global crude supply and was seen as a sign of progress in talks between the two sides.
The Federal Reserve remains the key focus for investors. After the hawkish signals delivered at the June meeting, markets continue to price in the probability of a rate hike as early as September. Major banks, including Deutsche Bank and Bank of America, have also revised their forecasts in favour of additional monetary policy tightening.
This week’s key event will be the release of the PCE index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge. The report may provide fresh signals about the persistence of price pressure in the US economy and influence expectations for the future path of interest rates.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart of EUR/USD, the market has formed a consolidation range around 1.1444 today. At the moment, the range has expanded downwards to 1.1418 and upwards to 1.1440. If the pair breaks out of this range to the upside, a corrective wave towards 1.1470 may develop. After that, a decline towards 1.1385 is expected.
If the pair breaks directly to the downside, the potential will open for a downward wave towards 1.1315.
Technically, this scenario is confirmed by the MACD indicator: its signal line is below the zero level and is pointing firmly downwards, reflecting a persistent bearish impulse with potential for the downtrend to continue.
On the H1 chart, the market has completed the structure of another growth wave towards 1.1449. At the moment, a consolidation range is forming below this level. Today, the range may expand downwards to 1.1409 and upwards to 1.1444. After that, a decline towards 1.1385 is expected.
The Stochastic oscillator supports this scenario: its signal line is below 50 and is pointing firmly downwards towards 20.
SOURCE LINK : EUR/USD Remains Under Sellers’ Control as the Dollar Stays Strong
