Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $62,394 on Tuesday, June 23, 2026,
down 2.54% on the session and pinned inside a bear pennant on the daily chart.
My Bitcoin price prediction reads the formation toward $38,000, a level that
overlaps the 2024 lows almost to the dollar.
Price holds
just above the $59,000-$60,000 shelf, this year’s floor, with two catalysts due
this week.
The May PCE
print lands Thursday, June 25, and the quarterly options expiry clears Friday,
June 26, both with the broader trend pointing lower and every moving average I
track above price.
In this
article, I check why Bitcoin price is falling and how low BTC can go when the
bearish flag scenario materializes.
Follow
me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk
Bitcoin
trades the rates channel, not the geopolitical one. The US-Iran ceasefire
signed June 19 in Switzerland repriced oil lower and lifted equities, yet
Bitcoin did not follow, because the same week’s Federal Reserve meeting leaned
hawkish and pushed a possible 2026 rate hike back onto the curve.
As in April’s Strait of Hormuz shock, the geopolitical move repriced oil
first and crypto second.
“Crypto
is trading the rates channel, not the geopolitical one,” said Adam Haeems,
Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group.
Haeems
frames Thursday’s PCE as a volatility event rather than a directional one, with
thinner quarter-end liquidity set to amplify whichever way the print breaks.
Paul
Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, reads positioning as defensive.
On-chain
data shows large holders carrying short Bitcoin positions as a hedge into the
options expiry, he notes, a setup that points lower in the near term. The
dollar held firm and Treasury yields rose across the curve after the meeting, a
backdrop that has capped risk assets.
The
pressure on Bitcoin comes from a stack of converging forces:
- Hawkish Fed: the June FOMC signaled a
possible 2026 hike, lifting yields across the curve - Rates over geopolitics: the Iran ceasefire moved oil
and equities, not crypto - PCE risk: Thursday’s May inflation print
can reprice rate expectations into the weekend - Defensive positioning: whales hold short hedges into
Friday’s quarterly options expiry - Thin liquidity: quarter-end books amplify any
directional flow
Contents
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis: The Bear Pennant Targeting $38,000
Price
action stays trapped under every moving average I track. The 50 EMA at $68,823
and the 200 EMA at $77,563 both sit above spot, the bearish stack that has
defined the tape since the February breakdown. My chart shows Bitcoin pinned
inside a bear pennant just above the $60,000 shelf, roughly 50% below the
$126,198 record set on October 6, 2025.
The pennant
formed after the slide from the $84,000 shelf, and its measured move points
lower. Projected from the breakdown, the move runs roughly 40% to $38,000. That
level matters because it overlaps the 2024 lows almost to the dollar, where my
chart marks the $38,327 floor. In 15 years reading daily charts, a pennant
pinned under a falling 200 EMA has rarely resolved higher.
The trigger Can Bitcoin hold $60,000 or does the pennant break toward $38,000? Source: TradingView.com
is the $59,000-$60,000 band, this year’s lows set in February and tested again
in June, a floor I flagged last week. A daily close below it opens the
$45,000-$50,000 support built in 2024, then the $38,000 target. My earlier $45,000 Fibonacci target stays in play as the first stop on
that path.
The bull
case needs a reclaim of $76,000-$77,500, the 200 EMA. Until that prints on a
daily close, every rally is a sell candidate in my framework.
|
Level |
Type |
Notes |
|
$76,000-$77,500 |
Resistance / 200 EMA |
Trend |
|
$68,823 |
Resistance / 50 EMA |
First cap |
|
$59,000-$60,000 |
Support |
Feb and |
|
$45,000-$50,000 |
Support |
2024 structure; prior Fibonacci target |
|
$38,000 |
Target |
Pennant |
How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
Bitcoin Price Predictions
External
targets span a wide range, and each one reads differently against my levels.
Paul Howard sees a near-term floor. “My expectation is we retest the $60k
range,” said Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, tied to Friday’s options
expiry. That matches my own trigger, since a daily close below $60,000 is what
opens the deeper path on my chart.
Standard
Chartered’s $50,000 flag aligns with my own sub-$60,000 path, the next shelf before $38,000.
CoinCodex’s model flags $75,000-$76,000 as near-term resistance, the same
200-EMA ceiling I fade. Across my prior Bitcoin coverage on my analyst page, the bear case has tracked from $74,500 down
to today’s $38,000 projection.
On the bull
side, as FinanceMagnates.com reported in May, Citi set $112,000 and Bernstein
$150,000 after the CLARITY Act vote, both requiring a reclaim of the 200 EMA
near $77,000 first. My chart shows no evidence of that yet.
JPMorgan’s
$240,000 long-term target sits furthest out, supported by its estimate of
Bitcoin’s production cost near $77,000, currently above spot, a condition that
has historically preceded reversals. That is a multi-year case on my chart, not
a 2026 one.
|
Source |
Target |
Notes |
|
Damian Chmiel (pennant) |
$38,000 |
Measured |
|
Standard Chartered |
$50,000 |
Downside |
|
Paul Howard, Wincent |
$60,000 |
Near-term |
|
CoinCodex model |
$75,000-$76,000 |
Near-term |
|
Citi |
$112,000 |
Post-CLARITY Act, May 2026 |
|
Bernstein |
$150,000 |
Post-CLARITY Act, May 2026 |
|
JPMorgan |
$240,000 |
Long-term; |
FAQ: Bitcoin Price
Analysis
How low can Bitcoin go in
2026?
My chart’s
bear pennant projects a measured move near 40% to $38,000, which overlaps the
2024 lows almost to the dollar. The path runs through the $59,000-$60,000
support and the $45,000-$50,000 zone built in 2024. A daily close below $60,000
is the trigger that activates the deeper targets, and price holds just above
that line for now.
Why is Bitcoin not rising
after the Iran ceasefire?
Bitcoin
trades the rates channel, not geopolitics. The June 19 ceasefire repriced oil
lower and lifted equities, but the same week’s hawkish Federal Reserve meeting
pushed a possible 2026 rate hike onto the curve. With formal forward guidance
reduced, each data print does more work, and Thursday’s PCE now carries the
weekend’s directional risk for crypto.
What is the bear pennant
target for Bitcoin?
The pennant
on my daily chart projects toward $38,000. The measured move runs roughly 40%
from current levels, and the target lines up with the 2024 lows near $38,327.
The bear case stays active while price holds below the 200 EMA at $77,563. A
daily close above $77,500 would neutralize the formation.
What would invalidate the
bearish Bitcoin outlook?
A daily
close back above the $76,000-$77,500 band, the 200 EMA, is the minimum the
bulls need. Sustained positive weekly ETF flows and a soft PCE print that
restores 2026 rate-cut expectations would reinforce a reversal. Until those
align, my framework treats every rally as a sell candidate inside a confirmed
downtrend.
What are analysts’ Bitcoin
price predictions for 2026?
Targets
span a wide range. Paul Howard of Wincent expects a $60,000 retest into options
expiry, while Standard Chartered flags $50,000 on a breakdown. On the bull
side, Citi set $112,000 and Bernstein $150,000 after the May CLARITY Act vote,
both requiring a reclaim of the 200 EMA near $77,000 first.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded at $62,394 on Tuesday, June 23, 2026,
down 2.54% on the session and pinned inside a bear pennant on the daily chart.
My Bitcoin price prediction reads the formation toward $38,000, a level that
overlaps the 2024 lows almost to the dollar.
Price holds
just above the $59,000-$60,000 shelf, this year’s floor, with two catalysts due
this week.
The May PCE
print lands Thursday, June 25, and the quarterly options expiry clears Friday,
June 26, both with the broader trend pointing lower and every moving average I
track above price.
In this
article, I check why Bitcoin price is falling and how low BTC can go when the
bearish flag scenario materializes.
Follow
me on X for real-time market analysis: @ChmielDk
Bitcoin
trades the rates channel, not the geopolitical one. The US-Iran ceasefire
signed June 19 in Switzerland repriced oil lower and lifted equities, yet
Bitcoin did not follow, because the same week’s Federal Reserve meeting leaned
hawkish and pushed a possible 2026 rate hike back onto the curve.
As in April’s Strait of Hormuz shock, the geopolitical move repriced oil
first and crypto second.
“Crypto
is trading the rates channel, not the geopolitical one,” said Adam Haeems,
Head of Asset Management at Tesseract Group.
Haeems
frames Thursday’s PCE as a volatility event rather than a directional one, with
thinner quarter-end liquidity set to amplify whichever way the print breaks.
Paul
Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, reads positioning as defensive.
On-chain
data shows large holders carrying short Bitcoin positions as a hedge into the
options expiry, he notes, a setup that points lower in the near term. The
dollar held firm and Treasury yields rose across the curve after the meeting, a
backdrop that has capped risk assets.
The
pressure on Bitcoin comes from a stack of converging forces:
- Hawkish Fed: the June FOMC signaled a
possible 2026 hike, lifting yields across the curve - Rates over geopolitics: the Iran ceasefire moved oil
and equities, not crypto - PCE risk: Thursday’s May inflation print
can reprice rate expectations into the weekend - Defensive positioning: whales hold short hedges into
Friday’s quarterly options expiry - Thin liquidity: quarter-end books amplify any
directional flow
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis: The Bear Pennant Targeting $38,000
Price
action stays trapped under every moving average I track. The 50 EMA at $68,823
and the 200 EMA at $77,563 both sit above spot, the bearish stack that has
defined the tape since the February breakdown. My chart shows Bitcoin pinned
inside a bear pennant just above the $60,000 shelf, roughly 50% below the
$126,198 record set on October 6, 2025.
The pennant
formed after the slide from the $84,000 shelf, and its measured move points
lower. Projected from the breakdown, the move runs roughly 40% to $38,000. That
level matters because it overlaps the 2024 lows almost to the dollar, where my
chart marks the $38,327 floor. In 15 years reading daily charts, a pennant
pinned under a falling 200 EMA has rarely resolved higher.
The trigger Can Bitcoin hold $60,000 or does the pennant break toward $38,000? Source: TradingView.com
is the $59,000-$60,000 band, this year’s lows set in February and tested again
in June, a floor I flagged last week. A daily close below it opens the
$45,000-$50,000 support built in 2024, then the $38,000 target. My earlier $45,000 Fibonacci target stays in play as the first stop on
that path.
The bull
case needs a reclaim of $76,000-$77,500, the 200 EMA. Until that prints on a
daily close, every rally is a sell candidate in my framework.
|
Level |
Type |
Notes |
|
$76,000-$77,500 |
Resistance / 200 EMA |
Trend |
|
$68,823 |
Resistance / 50 EMA |
First cap |
|
$59,000-$60,000 |
Support |
Feb and |
|
$45,000-$50,000 |
Support |
2024 structure; prior Fibonacci target |
|
$38,000 |
Target |
Pennant |
How Low Can Bitcoin Go?
Bitcoin Price Predictions
External
targets span a wide range, and each one reads differently against my levels.
Paul Howard sees a near-term floor. “My expectation is we retest the $60k
range,” said Howard, Senior Director at Wincent, tied to Friday’s options
expiry. That matches my own trigger, since a daily close below $60,000 is what
opens the deeper path on my chart.
Standard
Chartered’s $50,000 flag aligns with my own sub-$60,000 path, the next shelf before $38,000.
CoinCodex’s model flags $75,000-$76,000 as near-term resistance, the same
200-EMA ceiling I fade. Across my prior Bitcoin coverage on my analyst page, the bear case has tracked from $74,500 down
to today’s $38,000 projection.
On the bull
side, as FinanceMagnates.com reported in May, Citi set $112,000 and Bernstein
$150,000 after the CLARITY Act vote, both requiring a reclaim of the 200 EMA
near $77,000 first. My chart shows no evidence of that yet.
JPMorgan’s
$240,000 long-term target sits furthest out, supported by its estimate of
Bitcoin’s production cost near $77,000, currently above spot, a condition that
has historically preceded reversals. That is a multi-year case on my chart, not
a 2026 one.
|
Source |
Target |
Notes |
|
Damian Chmiel (pennant) |
$38,000 |
Measured |
|
Standard Chartered |
$50,000 |
Downside |
|
Paul Howard, Wincent |
$60,000 |
Near-term |
|
CoinCodex model |
$75,000-$76,000 |
Near-term |
|
Citi |
$112,000 |
Post-CLARITY Act, May 2026 |
|
Bernstein |
$150,000 |
Post-CLARITY Act, May 2026 |
|
JPMorgan |
$240,000 |
Long-term; |
FAQ: Bitcoin Price
Analysis
How low can Bitcoin go in
2026?
My chart’s
bear pennant projects a measured move near 40% to $38,000, which overlaps the
2024 lows almost to the dollar. The path runs through the $59,000-$60,000
support and the $45,000-$50,000 zone built in 2024. A daily close below $60,000
is the trigger that activates the deeper targets, and price holds just above
that line for now.
Why is Bitcoin not rising
after the Iran ceasefire?
Bitcoin
trades the rates channel, not geopolitics. The June 19 ceasefire repriced oil
lower and lifted equities, but the same week’s hawkish Federal Reserve meeting
pushed a possible 2026 rate hike onto the curve. With formal forward guidance
reduced, each data print does more work, and Thursday’s PCE now carries the
weekend’s directional risk for crypto.
What is the bear pennant
target for Bitcoin?
The pennant
on my daily chart projects toward $38,000. The measured move runs roughly 40%
from current levels, and the target lines up with the 2024 lows near $38,327.
The bear case stays active while price holds below the 200 EMA at $77,563. A
daily close above $77,500 would neutralize the formation.
What would invalidate the
bearish Bitcoin outlook?
A daily
close back above the $76,000-$77,500 band, the 200 EMA, is the minimum the
bulls need. Sustained positive weekly ETF flows and a soft PCE print that
restores 2026 rate-cut expectations would reinforce a reversal. Until those
align, my framework treats every rally as a sell candidate inside a confirmed
downtrend.
What are analysts’ Bitcoin
price predictions for 2026?
Targets
span a wide range. Paul Howard of Wincent expects a $60,000 retest into options
expiry, while Standard Chartered flags $50,000 on a breakdown. On the bull
side, Citi set $112,000 and Bernstein $150,000 after the May CLARITY Act vote,
both requiring a reclaim of the 200 EMA near $77,000 first.
SOURCE LINK : Bitcoin Price Prediction: Bear Flag on the BTC Chart Targets $38,000, Retest of the 2024 Lows
