USD/JPY’s steep decline last week confirms medium term topping at 163.97, on bearish divergence condition in D MACD. Fall from there is seen as correcting the whole rise from 139.87. Initial bias remains on the downside this week for 155.01 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 139.87 to 163.97 at 154.76). Strong support should be seen there to bring rebound, at least on first attempt. Nevertheless, risk will now remain on the downside as long as 160.87 minor resistance holds, in case of recovery.
In the bigger picture, as long as 155.01 structural support holds, the larger up trend is still expected to continue through 163.97 after current correction completes. However, firm break of 155.01 will raise the chance that USD/JPY is already in a larger scale correction, and open up deeper fall back to 139.87 (2025 low) in the medium term.
In the long term picture, up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) is still in progress. Next target is 61.8% projection of 102.58 (2020 low) to 161.94 (2024 high) from 139.87 at 176.55 in the medium term. Long term outlook will stay bullish as long as 139.87 support holds, even in case of deep pullback.
SOURCE LINK : https://www.actionforex.com/technical-outlook/usdjpy-outlook/649242-usd-jpy-weekly-outlook-466/
